Jun
30
Courtesy of W. R. Starkey Mortgage
Market Comment - Week of June 29th, 2009
Mortgage bond prices shot higher last week driving home loan rates lower. Mortgage rates found support from investors around the world following last week’s Treasury auctions. The Treasury sold bonds totaling 104B that were well received by foreign central banks. The indirect bidder participation, an indication of foreign demand, was near all-time highs. For the week interest rates fell by over a full discount point.The employment report Thursday will be the most important release this week. The ADP employment report will give an earlier glimpse into the employment situation though the two reports are derived from different data so there could be some divergence. Strength in the other economic data will do little to help mortgage interest rates improve.
| Economic Factors | |||
| Economic Indicator | Release Date Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
| Consumer Confidence | Tuesday, June 30, 2009 | 55.1 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| ADP Employment | Wednesday, July 1, 2009 | -363k | Important. An indication of employment. A large decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates. |
| ISM Index | Wednesday, July 1, 2009 | 44.00 | Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. A larger decline may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Employment | Thursday, July 2, 2009 | 9.6%, -370k jobs | Very important. An increase in unemployment or a large decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates. |
| Factory Orders | Thursday, July 2, 2009 | Up 0.2% | Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Market Holiday | Friday, July 3, 2009 | None | Important. Bond market closed in honor of Independence Day. |
GSEs
Government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) are financial services created by Congress. Two of the most important GSEs in the mortgage industry are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These corporations are designed to make credit available to targeted borrowers in an efficient manner. Fannie and Freddie were completely privately owned. However actions by the Treasury and Congress within the last year now blur the ownership. The credit crisis resulted in Fannie and Freddie facing huge liquidity concerns. Their insolvency under fair value accounting resulted in drastic measures to prevent total failure. The Treasury placed the GSEs in conservator, increased the lines of credit to the GSEs, and infused both companies with $100 billion for an ownership stake of 79.9%. This US Government ownership of these companies leaves many unknowns. While conservatorship implies temporary control, the Treasury exit strategy remains unclear and has yet to be revealed.The supply and demand characteristics of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) issued by Fannie and Freddie traditionally differ. Treasury securities represent money needed to fund the operations of the US government. MBSs, on the other hand, represent borrowing by homeowners. Because homeowners can sell or refinance their homes, investors in 30-year mortgage-backed securities usually see principal repayment in significantly shorter periods of time. In terms of demand, Treasury securities are regarded as “risk free” investments, and often benefit from a “flight to quality” in times of financial crisis.
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